Pervasive alterations to snow-dominated ecosystem functions under climate change

Wieder, W.R., Kennedy, D., Lehner, F., Musselman, K.N., Rodgers, K.B., Rosenbloom, N., Simpson, I.R., and Yamaguchi, R. 2022. Pervasive alterations to snow-dominated ecosystem functions under climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 119, e2202393119. Available at https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2202393119.

Ensemble mean annual cycle of daily snow water equivalent (SWE) for a gridcell in the northern Rocky Mountains, United States, with line colors corresponding to simulation years and associated changes in global mean temperature. X axis shows day of water year. Under climate warming, both the timing and magnitude of snowpack development are altered.

Abstract

Climate change will alter the mean ecohydrological state, but little is known about potential changes in ecohydrological variability that are required to inform climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies. Our results demonstrate pervasive alterations to the variability of water fluxes, water storage, and disturbance by the end of this century. Projected warming will reduce winter snow accumulation and increase the fraction of snow that melts during winter, blurring the seasonal distinction between periods of winter snow accumulation and its subsequent melt in the spring and summer. Notably, we find that in the future, runoff quantity and timing will be less predictable from snow, more closely reflecting the stochastic character of precipitation—findings that have critical implications for water resource management.